Global Warming Will Recalibrate Tourism Demand in Europe, Especially Along the Coasts

The southern coastal areas are expected to lose tourists in the summer, especially if temperatures rise by 3°C and 4°C, while tourism demand in the Nordic coastal areas will increase, according to a new study by JRC. Across the continent, tourist interest will decline in July and grow in April. According to forecasts, tourism will still grow with seasonal changes in demand across the continent.

The Regional Impact Study on Tourism Demand in Europe assesses changes in tourism demand under four climate futures, the Paris Agreement targets (1.5°C and 2°C) and two higher warming levels (3°C and 4°C).

According to forecasts, the overall impact on European tourism demand is expected to be positive, with an increase of 4.1% expected under the maximum warming scenario (58°C), but the aggregated results mask the high diversity of regions. There is a clear North-South pattern, with tourism demand increasing in Central and Northern Europe and declining in Southern Europe.

As the most visited region in the world, accounting for 51% of total international visitors (2019 million visitors in 7), Europe relies heavily on tourism as a major economic driver, directly generating 43% of EU GDP. Together with the contribution of the ancillary sector, tourism directly and indirectly contributes more than 5% of EU GDP. However, as temperatures rise and weather patterns become more unpredictable, action is needed to make tourism sustainable.

The study is the first regional assessment to explore the historical and future potential impact of climate on European tourism demand, revealing a consistent and strong relationship between the two.

The study plotted the impact of current climatic conditions on tourism over a 269-year monthly time span from 20 European regions and simulated future impacts for 2100, relying on 10 climate models and taking into account four levels of warming (1.5°C,2°C,3°C and 4°C). Projected evolution of regional European tourism demand (in percentage terms) compared to current （2019） scenarios for all global warming scenarios.

In the case of 1.5°C warming, much of Europe （80%） is expected to be affected by climate change in a fairly small proportion, with tourist flows to these regions fluctuating between -1% and +1%. For a 2°C rise, the results are very similar.

Under the highest emissions scenario, the impact of climate change on tourism demand in coastal areas is expected to be most significant, such as a 9.12% decline in tourism demand in the Greek Ionian Islands and a 15.93% increase in tourism demand in West Wales in the UK.

In addition, the largest losses (over 5%) are expected to be distributed in the Cyprus, Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal regions, while the highest gains (over 5%) are distributed in Germany, Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

Seasonal Variations

Seasonal patterns are expected to change significantly and have different impacts in different regions. Demand in the summer and early autumn months in coastal northern Europe is expected to grow by more than 5%. On the contrary, summer tourists in the southern coastal areas are expected to decrease by almost 10% compared to the current one, especially in the context of a warming climate (3°C and 4°C).

In these regions, the decline in summer demand was partially offset by an increase in the number of tourists in spring, autumn and winter. Overall, at 4°C, tourist traffic in April is expected to increase by 4.8% compared to the current one. The biggest decline in travel demand is expected in July, ranging from -89.7% in the 1.5°C scenario to -0.06% in the warmest climate scenario.

Background

Taking into account seasonality, geography, and regional typologies such as coastal and urban areas, the analysis shows that every 1% increase in TCI (Tourism Climate Index, a climate-related measure of human comfort) results in an increase of 0.57%. An increase in the number of nights spent in a region per month, a term used by the hospitality industry to measure occupancy. However, the magnitude of the impact depends on the specific type of tourism – coastal areas are the most vulnerable to climatic conditions.

The study builds on previous analyses and investigates the impact of climatic conditions on regional tourism flows, represented by the number of overnight stays in tourist accommodation. It lays the foundation for future research developments, including research on the need for winter tourism, a sector that plays an important socio-economic role in the snow and mountains of Europe.

To maintain the EU’s position as a leading tourist destination, the European Commission launched a roadmap in 2022 to achieve a dual transformation (green and digital) and improve the resilience of the tourism industry. The initiative focuses on transition pathways, emphasizing the intrinsic link between making tourism greener and implementing existing legislative initiatives related to environmental protection and climate neutrality. The Council of the European Union （2022） highlighted the resilience and sustainability of tourism in setting the EU Tourism Agenda 2030.